The Horrendous Planning

Over the last few months, Gas skyrocket to record breaking National High prices, thanks to a toxic concoction of a global pandemic, supply chain issues, production reduction, and the ongoing and often debated inflation angle. Regardless of why, one of the top issues taking the forefront is creating laws and deadlines for killing sales of new-ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and mandating the EV (electric vehicle, or sometimes called BEV, battery electric vehicle). Around the globe, you can find a variety of different target years to outright ban new-production and sales of gasoline and diesel powered engines, and you can find a number of States in the US aiming to ban them, from over-ambitious target years of 2035, and some more reasonably aiming at 2050. 

Cars, depending on who you are, are a complex thing in and of themselves. Dive in and you'll find people debating car manufacturers and the quality of the cars, people who have done their homework to push their cars lifespan into 300,000-miles and beyond, and horror stories of engine failures and fires (see: Kia/Hyundai/Ford recently). Despite the robust debating, one thing is true:

Cars are more expensive now, with record price soars on Used inventory. That's right, just open up a search engine and you'll quickly find that Used Cars from a few years ago may even cost more than a current-year production model on a lot (that is...if you can find it on a lot). Because inventories are so low, negotiation power of the consumer has been under a much tighter grip...before, at least, if you did your homework, you could go in with a good deal of power to negotiate price. Now? A dealer could just as easily tell you someone else will be on the lot in 15 minutes and buy everything at the set prices. 

Despite the growing concern of American's being able to afford Gas at the pump, or simply buy a REGULAR gasoline powered car, you can find this arrogance in the future of EVs touted by Biden Administration officials who argue that if you simply go all-in on the Electric Craze, you'd be saving so much money and never have to worry about Gas again. I suppose it isn't hard to afford the incredibly high-prices of EVs and equipping your home with charging capabilities if your career is oriented in government with a six-figure salary...

But the capability of purchasing is only one angle of the EV future. The other is just as pressing: the infrastructure. With more and more electric vehicles being pushed out, the greater the need for charging stations. More charging stations means more power consumption and delivery. What is the whole point to the EV/Battery vehicle? To cut down on emissions. Where does 60% of electricity in the US come from? Oh...fossil fuels. That's just currently, mind you, with 19% coming from Nuclear sources, and about 20% coming from the often clamored renewables (Fun fact, almost 7% of that 20% is from hydropower, which is recently coming under scrutinity from the green/renewables crowd). What are the needs going to look like adding millions of electric vehicles that will be plugged in regularly, a good portion probably at peak hours or overnights when the demand would normally be down or lulled? Research is suggesting large challenges to the grid. 

And the batteries? Most are showing warranties of 8 years or 100,000-miles. That, to me, is a drop in the bucket. There are a plethora of factors into battery life and health, including the fact that supercharging a battery will take a toll on its lifespan. Most batteries average around 200 miles of distance per charge. While that may put an average American driving about 40-miles a day in a good setting, its unsustainable for the long-commuter who may do nearly 100-miles a day. This doesn't take into account battery depreciation and the capabilities of replacing battery systems for new ones. Which brings us to a new issue that soon cannot be ignored: shortages. 

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has echoed the age-old adage that the road to hell is paved with good intentions, warning that a battery shortage and raw materials will be sparse in literally just a few short years. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe has echoed the same, adding that the chip shortage was merely an appetizer. 

None of this is written in an outright criticism and condemnation of the EV movement. On the contrary, I hope through trial-and-error, EV tech can continue to evolve and be refined and improved upon, but there is a large argument here to be made about moving ahead with it. Setting strict deadlines may not be in our best interest, nor is discouraging refining and improving current technologies. The question to be asked should be: is it better to have millions of new EV cars in a system that we aren't even fully sure how it will work, or is it better to transition more people into more efficient vehicles with what we have while we continue refining them, and the EV vehicles and infrastructure, to reach the eventual end goal of eliminating the Internal Combustion Engine?